22 | irrational confidence

During recent prep for an issue of Tom Petty Is My DJ, I listened to Bob Seger’s RAMBLIN’ GAMBLIN’ MAN. One lyric caught my attention:

Ain't good looking, but you know I ain't shy
Ain't afraid to look a girl, yeah, in the eye
So if you need some lovin', and you need it right away
Take a little time out, and maybe I'll stay

It made me think of a concept I have heard discussed by multiple people in the sports world: irrational confidence. Most recently, I heard it discussed on a podcast featuring Euroleague Final Four MVP Tyrese Rice and coach David Blatt.

Prior to that, it was a term that I first heard from an NBA coach I worked with through Courtex Performance. The coach noted that there were players who had irrational confidence. Interestingly, the data we collected at Courtex during our work ahead of the NBA Draft suggests that, more often than not, basketball players in the NBA were irrationally confident!

For context, we have surveyed 700+ professional basketball players using the Reiss Motivation Profile (RMP). The RMP measures intrinsic motivation across 16 dimensions, or fundamental desires. The 16 desires are universal, but the extent to which each matters to an individual is unique.

One of those desires, acceptance, measures the desire for approval from others. Individuals who have a low desire for acceptance are self-confident, optimistic, and bounce back quickly from failure. Individuals who have a high desire for acceptance tend to be negative, full of self-doubt, and may struggle to respond to criticism/failure with renewed effort. The RMP is a normed survey, so scores can easily be reported as percentiles. In the case of acceptance, the median score for athletes we evaluated ahead of the NBA Draft is 14. In other words, having a “normal” amount of self-confidence in the NBA makes you abnormal!

As someone with an irrational lack of confidence, I find this data fascinating. It also makes me think about the distinction between what is true and what is helpful. When it comes to acceptance, NBA athletes tend to believe something that isn’t objectively true, but is very helpful. They believe they will be successful no matter the odds. They don’t care what other people think of them. Their self-worth persists despite poor performances. While not objectively true, all of those things feel subjectively true for someone with a low desire for acceptance. And when you question someone with a low need for acceptance about why they would believe in themselves to the extent that they do, they look at you like you just asked them why they believe in gravity!

But what about the flipside of acceptance? For athletes with a high need for acceptance, what feels true is all too often not helpful at all. I can recall a moment during my college baseball career when I had pitched a good game. And yet, having just spent the entire contest telling myself I was a worthless sack of s*** who couldn’t locate, I still felt awful. I remember thinking, “I don’t know if I would say such things to someone who was actively stabbing me.” But it felt true. If I had known then what I know now, I perhaps would have chosen more helpful self-talk.

So back to Bob Seger and his protagonist in RAMBLIN’ GAMBLIN’ MAN. Is he good looking? Is he shy? Does it really matter? That character believed what was helpful. In fairness, for those people who are blessed with irrational confidence, the distinction between helpful and true may not matter much. But for the rest of us, thinking in terms of what is helpful rather than what feels true can make all of the difference.

Anthony Sisti, Roee Gutman, Vincent Mor, Laura Dionne, James L. Rudolph, Rosa R. Baier, and Ellen M. McCreedy. 2025. Using structured observations to evaluate the effects of a personalized music intervention on agitated behaviors and mood in nursing home residents with dementia: results from an embedded, pragmatic randomized controlled trial. Am J Geriatr Psychiatry, 32(3), 300-311.

summary: In this study, researchers examined the effects of a Music & Memory (M&M) intervention on individuals with dementia. M&M is a personalized intervention using music that individuals preferred early in their lives. It is presented at the initial signs of agitation or when dementia-related behaviors are likely. In this study, music that residents liked as young adults was delivered for 30 minutes per day, at times when dementia-related behaviors were likely to occur. Behaviors were assessed using the Agitated Behavior Mapping Instrument (ABMI), which assesses the frequency of 13 behaviors over a a three-minute period. The ABMI has both verbal and physical dimensions, and also includes an embedded measure of emotion. Although there were no differences between groups in physically agitated behaviors, anger, fear, alertness, or sadness, individuals in the intervention group experienced a reduction in verbally-agitated behaviors and were more likely to be observed experiencing pleasure compared to residents in usual care.

potential translations to sport: This study illustrates the power of music to evoke memories and help individuals connect with pleasant emotions. For athletes, music could be a helpful method of connecting to a time when their performance felt free or when there was less pressure to succeed. For example, I once worked with a runner who used Meek Mill’s BIG DREAMS in the leadup to a professional event because it was a song he used to play ahead of competitions in high school. It helped him connect with a feeling of just going out and competing. I have had many conversations with other athletes about their desire to connect to the feeling they had when they were playing as a youth or at lower levels of professional sport. If athletes can identify music that was in their lives during those periods, it may help them find that emotional place ahead of competition. Even just connecting with a younger, more carefree version of themselves may have a benefit, as was recently discussed in a podcast appearance by Dr. Josephine Perry. Perry noted that some of her clients found relaxation by watching shows that they had watched at younger ages (e.g., Barbie Life in the Dreamhouse). This recent study, and others like it, suggest that listening to music preferred by a younger version of yourself may provide a similar effect.

I turn back the clock for this spotlight to the late Wayman Tisdale, who averaged 15.3 points and 6.1 rebounds during his 12-year NBA career. By most accounts, Tisdale’s love of his sport was surpassed by both his love of music and his commitment to his faith, proving that an athlete doesn’t need to be fully consumed by their sport to achieve world-class status. Tisdale passed away in 2009 of complications from cancer treatment, but left an impressive music catalogue in his 44 years. The clip below offers a small glimpse into the man behind the athlete and musician.

And for a sample of Tisdale’s musical talents, check out his greatest hits.

My personal introduction to LL Cool J dates back to his MAMA SAID KNOCK YOU OUT ALBUM and his turn as Patrick Zevo in the 1992 movie TOYS. Prior to entering my orbit, however, the rapper born as James Todd Smith was already crafting lyrical lessons in confidence. This issue turns the lyrical spotlight on a track from his second studio album BIGGER AND DEFFER. Check out the track below or show 22 on chordinnate radio, where it makes an appearance.

Even when I'm bragging
I'm being sincere

ll cool j I’M BAD

This issue’s spotlight is on Kirsten Hammermeister, whose Tell Me About It substack provides a glimpse into the process of writers and creatives. I personally believe that everything has to do with everything, so I think there is so much to learn from hearing about how others approach creativity. If you feel similarly, check out Kirsten’s substack!

Recovering rapper frank., who you can at least partially blame for the existence of chordinnate, recently teamed up with Krizz Kaliko to create BLEED BLUE, an anthem to both celebrate the 10th anniversary of the 2015 World Champion Kansas City Royals and hopefully inspire similar results from this year’s club. frank. spends his days now as a music executive, but when I met him 25 years ago, he was a young MC plotting his escape from flyover country. Looks like you can take the man out of Kansas City, but can’t take the Kansas City out of the man!

The playlist for this issue builds upon the theme highlighted in the Bob Seger lyrics that inspired the spotlight idea. I went with songs that were all about confidence and self-belief. I personally don’t understand the feeling, but, from what people tell me, it is quite nice!